Institutional Repository
Thesis Issued 2026-09-07 EN

Econometric Analysis of the Economic Structure and Planning Decisions in Bangladesh

Author: Ekram Hossain
Economic planning -Bangladesh

Abstract

In this dissertation, the process of economic growth in Bangladesh under the administration of the government of Pakistan was studied first. The politicoeconomic forces which caused the rate of economic growth in Bangladesh to be slower tha.n that of West Pakistan were identified and analyzed. The existence of technological progress and the form of the returns to scale were studied by estimating non-linear CES production functions. Strong evidence of only decreasing returns to scale in Bangladesh was observed. The rate of economic growth in Bangladesh was found to be not only low but also unstable owing to the primitive economic structure of production. The purpose of economic planning in Bangladesh was postulated to make optimum allocation of resources in order to transform the structure of production for generating high, stable and selfsustaining economic growth. A macro-economic model representing the economic structure was then estimated, This model was designed to be useful for deciding optimum allocations for promoting both short-run and for long-run policy objectives. The model also allows application of the results for various growth theories in an aggregate development planning frame work. The solutions of the model for optimal planning decisions were obtained by applying the GSEM approach which is flexible enough to yield solutions for single or multiple objectives. The reduced form matrix of the model was used to group the variables into target, instrument and data variables and constants. The concept of the pseudoinverse which enables one to obtain inverses of rectangular or singular matrices was then used to obtain the final solutions. This method was used to evaluate the allocation decisions of the Annual Plan announced by the Bangladesh Planning Commission. The model indicated that the decissions of the Planning Commission were reasonably correct. The model was then applied to recommend optimal allocations for the first year of a hypothetical five year plan for Bangladesh. A few useful guidelines for the next five year plan for were also extracted from these solutions. The dissertation ends with a discusion of these useful properties as well as various shortcomings of the model and a hope that the usefulness of the model is likely to be enhanced with more disaggregation and greater availability of reasonably accurate data in future.