Abstract
The study aimed at assessing the impact of climate change on rural livelihood in a coastal
area of Bangladesh. The specific objectives of the study were: (i) to describe the selected
socio-demographic characteristics of the coastal rural people; (ii) to analyze the trends of
major climatic factors (temperature, rainfall, tidal flood, and soil salinity); (iii) to describe
the vulnerability situation of the coastal rural people due to changes in selected major
climatic factors; (iv) to measure the changes in livelihood as perceived by the respondents
due to changes in selected major climatic factors; and (v) to explore the changes in
livelihood strategies to cope with the changing climatic condition. The study was
conducted in Mongla upazila under Bagerhat district which is recognized as a climate
vulnerable area of Bangladesh. Eight villages from two unions of the upazila were selected
purposively as the locale of the research. All the climate vulnerable people, having 45 years
and above age, of the selected villages were considered as the population of the study. A
list of people with the mentioned category was collected from the concerned Union
Parishads. Thus, the final population size of the study was 1,609. From this population, 15
percent were randomly selected as the sample of the study. Thus, the final sample size
constituted of 240 rural people. Data were collected using a structured interview schedule
from November, 2019 to January, 2020. Along with interviewing, FGDs and KIIs were
employed, while secondary data were also used to analyze the trends of the major climatic
factors. Secondary data analysis revealed that average annual temperature of Mongla
upazila showed an increasing trend. An overwhelming majority (96 percent) of the
respondents also had the perception that the average temperature of the area has been
increasing. Findings also showed that rainfall and its frequency remained unchanged as
per perception of the half of (50 percent) respondents. While, intensity of tidal flood
intensity and frequency were found mainly unchanged. On the contrary, severity of soil
salinity and intrusion in new areas has been increased terrifyingly in the study area. It was
explored that 'scarcity of safe drinking water' and `decreasing rice yield' were the top
vulnerability issues to the local people. However, `increasing shrimp culture' became
blessings for the respondents, which impacted positively for improving their income. It
was evident that the highest majority (87 percent) of the respondents' income increased
over time. Among them, 67.92 percent respondents had transformed their occupation into
shrimp and crab culture from conventional farming and 22.92 percent transformed into
non-farm activities. The study also explored that all the respondents who transformed their
occupation into shrimp and crab culture were either the owner of small, medium or large
farms. Interestingly, all (100 percent) of the medium and large farmers were enjoying their
increased income. Marginal and small farmers transformed their occupation into non-farm
activities or remained in conventional farming. Like income improvement, about 87
percent of the respondents had better food security and wellbeing in the study area. Thus,
it could be concluded that climate change has rather positive impact on livelihoods of the
majority coastal rural people due to transformation of their livelihood strategies into either
shrimp-crab culture or non-farm activities. However, coastal people who still depended on
conventional farming, their income, food security and wellbeing either decreased or
remained unchanged. So the coastal rural people who were able to change their occupation
from conventional farming to shrimp and crab farming are the climate winners. On the
other hand, those who failed to transform their livelihood strategies are the climate losers.