Abstract
Abstract: This study presents the present status of food security and ecological footprint, an
indicator of environmental sustainability and a computer model of integrated management of the
coastal zones of Bangladesh. The study also assesses the climate change impacts on rice
production in the coastal zone of Bangladesh. To estimate the present status of the food security
and ecological footprint of the coastal zone of Bangladesh, primary and secondary data were
collected and the present status of food security and environmental degradation (in terms of
ecological footprint) were calculated. To estimate household food security primary data were also
collected from all the households of a representative selected village.A quantitative method for
computation of food security in grain equivalent based on economic returns (price) is developed✓
and a method of measuring sustainable development in terms of ecological footprint developed by
Wackernagel and Rees (1996) is used to estimate the environmental sustainability. Overall status
of food security at upazila levels is good for all the upazilas (8.53% to 164.19%) except
Shoronkhola (-23.65%), Shyamnager (-6.08%) and Morrelgonj (-30.29%), and the best is the
Kalapara upazila (164.19%). But status of food security at household levels is poor. The
environmental status in the coastal zones is poor for all the upazilas (-0.5076 to -0.027) except
Kalapara (+0.306) and Galachipa (+0.322) and the worst is the Mongla upazila (-0.5076).
Environmental status has degraded mainly due to shrimp culture. Developed computer model
predicts that expanding shrimp aquaculture industry ensures high food security at upazila levels
with increasing environmental degradation.The model also predicts that if shrimp aquaculture
industry continues to boom from the present status to super intensive shrimp aquaculture, a
collapse of the shrimp aquaculture industry will ultimately occur turning shrimp aquaculture land
neither suitable for shrimp culture nor crop production. The control of population and growth of
the shrimp production intensity should be considered for stabilization of the system in the long run.
The sustainable development of the coastal zone of Bangladesh in the long run without control of
both the growth of shrimp production intensity and population will remain mere dream. Crop
growth model InfoCrop was used to predict the impact of climate change on crop production in the
coastal zone of Bangladesh. Sensitivity analysis shows that the crop model is sensitive to
temperature change and CO2 levels.The simulation was carried out to predict the yields of rice
under different climatic trends of temperature and carbon dioxide concentration. The effect of
temperature on the yield of rice that is negative while of CO2 is positive but temperature plays
dominant role. Prediction was also made to predict the climate change impacts of rice yields based
on historical and IPCC climate change scenarios. Historical climate change scenario has little
impacts on rice yield but there is relatively higher reduction in the yields of rice for IPCC climate
change scenario. The model validated with the actual field data and found good agreement
between simulated and actual data. ICZM computer model can be used to assist the policy planners
to assess different policy issues and to design a policy for sustainable development of the coastal
zones of Bangladesh. This study suggests that control measures are needed for affected upazilas
and any further expansion of the shrimp aquaculture to enhance the food security must take into
account the environmental aspects of the locality under consideration. Climate change impact
study suggests taking some strategy to adapt the climate change impact situation.