Abstract
A three-phase study was carried out to asses the potential and efficiency of livestock production through development of a simple simulation computer model on livestock production in traditional farming at peri-urban areas of Mymensingh and Sylhet. In phase one, rural, peri-urban and urban areas of three study towns, Pabna, Mymensingh and Sylhet were defined at mauza level using both primary and secondary data. The socio-economic and physical environmental data for selected mauzas were gathered as a secondary data from census book and primary data on livestock production with two pre-tested structured questionnaires through interview during November 1996 to February 1997. The combined results, Principal Component Analysis and Cluster analysis, of the census data determined rural, peri-urban and urban areas of study towns. The number of determined mauzas were 22 rural, 7 peri-urban and 4 urban mauzas out of 33 in Mymensingh; 24 rural, 8 peri- urban and 3 urban mauzas out of 35 in Pabna and 17 rural, 8 peri-urban, 5 urban and 4 tea garden mauzas out of 34 in Sylhet. The phase two study was carried out for characterisation of livestock production systems in three areas of the above three study towns. Ten mauzas were selected from each area of the town and ten householders from in each mauzas from the assessment or voter lists randomly. Data were collected through a pre-tested structured questionnaire by personnel interview during June to November 1997. For characterisation of livestock production system, information were gathered on household demography, land holding, source of capital, type of farming systems, livestock distribution, breeding systems, breeding problems of cattle, housing, feeds and feeding, sources of labour, livestock products with their marketing, disease, constraints of livestock production, access to services and consumption data related to animal proteins. The findings revealed that an integrated traditional farming system was very dominant in all three areas. Almost all households consumed fish and more frequent than others in the order of milk, egg, beef, chicken and mutton in all areas of study towns. Urban people consumed more quantity of animal proteins followed by peri-urban and rural areas and that was also higher in Sylhet than Pabna and Mymensingh. In phase three, a simple simulation model was developed on livestock production in traditional farming system to asses the potential and efficiency of livestock production in some peri- urban areas of Mymensingh and Sylhet towns through eight case studies to know the detail of management, margins, efficiency, cash flows and constraints that hinder production of livestock products. "Vaccination in chicken production" and "Introduction of legume fodder to increase milk production of dairy cattle", these two dynamic simulation models were developed on livestock production systems through identification of two main constraints in chicken and cattle production during case study. The vaccination of chicken production model was developed based on production of chicken as value of holding, sale, death and consumption, which was expressed in line diagram on weekly basis during case study year. This model describes the dynamic changes of value of holding and mortality of chicken weekly after introduction of Newcastle and Fowl pox vaccines in existing farming situation. Use of this model, could help measuring the losses, productivity and cost effectiveness of the farm entrepreneur. The other simulation model, evaluation of financial effects was done through introducing of legume fodder in the feeding regime. The strategy in this study was for increased milk yield by increasing supplying of forage through: production of Grasspea as a relay crop with T. Aman rice and Sesbania after harvesting of Boro rice. The considered affected variables were forage production cost, the amount of forage produced and land used for production of forage, the percentage of increased production of milk and crops, and the amount of forage used for cattle per week. Through this model it was found that introduction of legume fodder was efficient for increased production of milk of dairy cattle as well as of rice. From this study it be concluded that rural, peri-urban and urban areas of towns at mauza level could be determined using census data alone through statistical analysis with some selected variables. In characterisation of livestock production, traditional mixed farming system was dominant in all three areas, in urban center intensive system of cattle production were also present to some extent. Through the developed simulation model of vaccination in chicken production, losses of chicken from diseases and their net return from vaccination could easily be calculated through at national level. Besides, through simulation model on introduction of legume fodder as Sesbania and Grasspea increased milk production of dairy cows and improved cattle health as well as rice production ultimately the scarcity of cattle feed would be minimised.