Abstract
The present study highlightened the important issues of agricultural marketing and price behaviour of
mustard in Bangladesh both at micro and macro level. It also focused about the growth rate and instability in price,
area, production and yield of mustard in the selected districts along with area response to various economic and noneconomic factors and future demand supply estimation of mustard in the next 6th and 7th five-year plans of the
country. The study was confined in five mustard producing districts namely, Tangail, Comilla, Jessore, Mymensingh
and Patuakhali, which account for more than 43 per cent of the area and 30 per cent of total production in
Bangladesh during 1997-98. A total of 150 farmers were selected by using simple random sampling technique
while; 150 traders were selected as samples from each group by using proportionate random sampling technique. Six performance indicators were used for measuring marketing efficiency. Time series and cross section data were used
for estimating demand for mustard in Bangladesh. In time series analysis, single equation models taking separately
price and quantity as dependent variables and for income elasticities, cross section data were used. For area
response, Nerlovian Partial Adjustment model was used. Majority of the farmers (85%) sold their produce to the
the
small village traders and in the primary market, whereas a few of them (15%) sold their produce to the secondary
market. On the basis of quantity, about 76% of the surplus of mustard is marketed in the secondary market, while it
was only 24% in the primary market. Among the selected four major channels, the producer's share was the highest
in channel-III (60.45%), which was considered as an efficient marketing channel. This higher share was made
possible due to the reduction of some middlemen between producers and consumers. It is mentionable that
extent of annual fluctuation of price was maximum for Patuakhali district in terms of lagged price and random price
fluctuation. The extent of random fluctuations was lower than the extent of annual fluctuations for the prices of
mustard in all locations. The result indicated that annual range of fluctuations in price, area, production and yield in
the recent years were more stable compared to that of later parts of the eighties. The extent of fluctuation for both
area and production was highest for Mymensingh district but in the case of yield it was highest for Tangail and
Patuakhali districts. All the markets are significantly correlated except Patuakhali district, mainly due to poor
communication linkage between Patuakhali and other districts. The growth rate of mustard area was positive and
in
in
highest 7.57% for Tangail and 0.67% for Bangladesh as a whole. Non-significant negative growth rate in area was
found for Mymensingh and Comilla districts. The farmers of Jessore, Mymensingh and Bangladesh as a whole
registered positive growth rates, while Tangail, Comilla and Patuakhali districts obtained negative growth rates
terms of both production and productivity per annum. The elasticities of acreage with respect to relative price
variable were 0.203 for Mymensingh, 0.190 for Patuakhali and 0.188 for the country as a whole. The supply
response analysis of mustard revealed that price variable rather than non-price variables were significant
determining the area response of mustard (except rainfall in Tangail) in different locations. The farmers of Comilla,
Jessore, Mymensingh and Tangail districts have not responded significantly to various prices and yield factors. The
factors like irrigation and sowing season rainfall was relatively weak and insignificant, influencing mustard area,
while the relative yield, relative gross return and their risk factors showed significant negative impact and the
farmers in the study areas were risk averse. The average yield and value productivity per hectare of mustard has
declined significantly in various districts due to shifting of better quality land from mustard to other crops like
in
wheat, rice, potato. The result indicated that the scope for increasing the area under mustard appeared to be very
limited in the study areas. The price and income elasticity of mustard was estimated to be -0.21 and -1.52
respectively. The negative effect of price and income reflected that the consumption pattern of mustard oil will
decrease due to negative income effect. In cross-section analysis, income elasticities as obtained from logarithmic
functions were 1.14, 0.53 and 0.60 for national, urban and rural areas respectively. If past growth rate in production
would continue in future, the future deficit of mustard is likely to increase to 1.29 lakh tonnes (49%) and 2.32 lakh
tonnes (85%) respectively by the end of sixth and seventh five year plan period. The deficit goes on increasing both
absolute and in percentage terms at about 1.50 lakh tonnes (62 %) and 2.59 lakh tonnes (106%) respectively
during the same period of time when production was estimated on the basis of area response function. The total
shortfall of edible oil during the sixth and seventh five years plan period was about 4.87 lakh and 7.15 lakh tonnes
respectively of the total demand. Increase in domestic production through modern crop cultivation, use of marginal
land, inter-cropping of mustard with other crops, growing mustard in different suitable cropping patterns,
development of communication system, establishment of oil mill and storage facilities adjacent to growing areas,
efficient cooperative marketing system, fixation of minimum support price, ensured producers share and effective
price policy measures are some of the major alternatives to achieve higher production to meet the future demand for
mustard in Bangladesh